How Canada’s skilled immigration system went off the rails — and how to fix it

Summary. Express Entry was never meant to be Canada’s skilled immigration program. It was supposed to be the sorting system layered on top of the Federal Skilled Worker, Canadian Experience Class, and Federal Skilled Trades programs. For several years after its 2015 launch, it worked: predictable draws, stable CRS cutoffs, and a cohort of new permanent residents who integrated economically at rates well above historical averages. Since 2020, the system has drifted. Short-term policy management, rising immigration targets, diploma-mill fraud in the student pipeline, LMIA abuse, and category-based selection have turned Express Entry into a constantly shifting scoreboard that rewards political expedience more than durable human capital. Nino Melikidze and I have published a full policy commentary at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute laying out how we got here, what IRCC’s Spring 2026 consultation is considering, and a detailed redesign proposal to put the system back on track.

Read the full commentary

The complete analysis, including figures on CRS cutoff distributions, admissions growth, and our proposed reformed scoring grid, is published on MLI:

How Canada’s skilled immigration system went off the rails – and how to fix it · Macdonald-Laurier Institute · June 24, 2026

What the piece argues

Canada needs a system that clearly answers three basic questions: who are we trying to attract, why are they valuable to Canada, and how do we measure that consistently?

The MLI commentary walks through four stages of the problem.

Express Entry worked when it stayed in its lane. Between 2015 and 2019, Express Entry grew from under 10,000 admissions to more than 109,000 while maintaining relatively stable CRS cutoffs in the mid-400s. The Comprehensive Ranking System rewarded age, education, language, and skilled work experience. Processing was fast. Candidates could plan around the system.

The deterioration was gradual, not sudden. The pandemic-era decision to invite 27,332 CEC candidates at a CRS cutoff of 75 set a precedent that Express Entry could be bent to meet short-term admission targets. Immigration levels rose from 341,000 in 2020 to 485,000 in 2024. Category-based selection, launched in 2023, added another layer of unpredictability: a candidate with a CRS score of 510 could be competitive in one draw and irrelevant in the next, depending entirely on which category IRCC called that week. By 2025, CEC draws averaged a cutoff of 529 while Francophone category draws averaged 425 — a gap of more than 100 points between the two largest selection streams.

IRCC is now consulting on a redesign. The department ran a public consultation from April 23 to May 24, 2026, considering whether to merge FSW, CEC, and FST into a single federal high-skilled class and recalibrate the CRS around factors more closely linked to labour-market success. That direction is real, but the consultation alone will not restore what Express Entry lost. Merging programs and moving points around is not the same as building a better system in practice.

Our proposal goes further than administrative cleanup. The commentary sets out a consolidated “General High Skills Express Entry” pathway with a reformed 1,200-point CRS grid that rewards durable human capital and verified economic establishment rather than claims that can be shaped through reference letters or NOC-code positioning. Key elements include:

• CRA-verified Canadian earnings as an integrity signal, rather than relying on self-reported overseas work experience
• A disciplined Broad Occupation Category × TEER filter so lower-wage or easily inflated occupations are not treated as high-skill simply because they fall into TEER 2 or 3
• Removal of the 600-point provincial nomination boost from the federal merit calculation, with PNPs operating as fully separate selection systems
• Predictable biweekly draws on a published annual schedule, with standing categories for healthcare, trades, and STEM
• A default 10 per cent country cap across all draws so no single nationality dominates federal skilled selection
• Francophone immigration outside Quebec handled outside Express Entry, through provincial francophone streams, rural community pathways, and dedicated regional pilots
• A population-linked admissions ceiling of 1 per cent, with an interim cap of 300,000 annual admissions while reforms are implemented
• A clean day-one transition: wipe the existing pool, require re-entry under new rules, and grant automatic six-month interim work permit extensions to in-pool candidates with CRS 450+ and valid Canadian employment at launch

The full scoring grid, occupational eligibility filter, and transition mechanics are in the MLI commentary.

About my co-author

Nino Melikidze is a Toronto-based immigration tech founder, TEDx speaker, and immigration policy reform advocate. A prominent voice in the Canadian immigration space since 2021, she runs Immitracker, an immigration application tracking and analysis platform for Canada and Australia, and is the former host of the My Immigrant Story podcast. Nino and I are both involved in the Build Canada network and have co-authored parliamentary briefs, Substack policy writing, and prior MLI commentary on Express Entry and the Start-Up Visa program.

FAQ

Where can I read the full analysis?

On the Macdonald-Laurier Institute website. The piece includes data visualizations on CRS cutoff trends, admissions growth, and our proposed reformed scoring grid.

Is this connected to IRCC’s Spring 2026 Express Entry consultation?

Yes. The commentary responds directly to IRCC’s consultation on potential Express Entry reforms and argues that merging the three federal skilled programs and recalibrating CRS points will not be sufficient without a more fundamental rebuild of the selection logic.

How does this relate to the earlier Express Entry writing on this site?

My April 2026 essay on what changed in Express Entry documents the draw composition and CRS gap problems from the applicant side. The MLI commentary goes deeper on the policy history, the data behind the deterioration, and a full legislative-style redesign proposal. The Public Record page links to parliamentary testimony, prior MLI pieces, and press coverage.

What is Immitracker?

Immitracker is an immigration application tracking and analysis platform for Canada and Australia, built by Nino Melikidze. It is one of the tools practitioners and applicants use to monitor draw trends, processing times, and application status across federal immigration streams.

Nino Melikidze and Steven J. Paolasini are immigration policy reform advocates involved in the Build Canada network. Steven J. Paolasini is a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC R710971) and the principal of SJP Immigration Inc., based in Toronto. He testified before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration on February 9, 2026.

Last reviewed: June 24, 2026.